Bare bones budget for jobseekers

bare-bones-budget
The bottom line (red) shows the unemployment benefit – flat-lining since 1993 apart from the Covid stimulus and the token Budget increase. Chart from ACOSS in 2023 dollars

Just as well the Commonwealth Government Budget wasn’t tabled last week – that would have been too much of a mixed message.

A nation’s budget is all about redistribution of wealth, a concept worth keeping in mind at a time when £100 million of British taxpayers’ money was spent on an unnecessary coronation pageant.

As has been repeatedly pointed out, Prince Charles became King by default on September 8, 2022, on the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth II. There was no pressing reason to stage a mediaeval pageant, however splendidly well done.

This week, the media’s attention swung back to the King’s southern hemisphere colony, as Treasurer Jim Chalmer presented his budget.

So much had been flagged already that one does have to question is there a critical reason for the media embargo till 7.30pm on Tuesday.

As I started writing this on Tuesday morning, much of the Budget’s headline measures had already been revealed. This included a $15 billion spend on cost-of-living relief; $1.5 billion of it in electricity bill relief for 5.5 million households and 1 million small businesses. I should point out that this is from an ABC article published on Tuesday morning. The ABC’s business reporters Ian Verrender and Gareth Hutchens were all over it.

One of the other measures flagged earlier aimed to change the dispensing rules at pharmacies. Australians will be able to buy two months’ worth of medicines on a single prescription, with the change affecting more than 300 common medicines. This overrides the current rule that only 30 days’ supply of medicine can be applied to one prescription.

The ABC and other media outlets also seemed confident, ahead of the Budget, that Chalmers would produce a surplus and indeed he did. You can’t please everyone, though. Greens leader Adam Bandt said the government had prioritised delivering a ($4.5 billion) surplus over supporting people in poverty.

“Labor’s second budget is a betrayal of people who were promised that no one would be left behind,” he said in a tweet on social media.

Other leaked or pre-announced budget measures included cheaper child care and a (long overdue) pay rise for aged care workers. Welfare recipients received higher payments, but nowhere near the level asked for by lobbyists.

The Budget is a document which sets out how taxes paid by Australian businesses and individuals will be spent. It is a massive number, equating to 29% of GDP. In 2021-2022, $683 billion was raised in taxes across all levels of government. This was 15.2% higher than the previous year. A table prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows an upward trajectory for taxation revenue. The slight blip in 2019-2020 was due to disruption to employment by the onset of Covid-19 and its attendant lockdowns. Total tax revenue includes all Commonwealth, State and Territory taxes, GST, those indirect taxes that still exist and excises imposed on alcohol, tobacco and fuel.

The cost-of-living package is one thing, but the government has been under enormous pressure to raise the level of unemployment benefit. The Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS) last month presented a detailed brief to Treasurer Jim Chalmers. A former Commonwealth Treasury head, Ken Henry, appeared on television as the ACOSS brief’s anointed spokesman. In a call to raise the level of NewStart and Youth Allowance, ACOSS said some 750,000 people in communities across Australia live on unemployment and student payments that do not cover the cost of housing, food, transport and healthcare.

The single rate of Newstart is (or was) less than $40 per day and living on Newstart and Youth Allowance presents the biggest risk to living in poverty. ACOSS wanted the rate raised to within 90% of the aged pension, so were almost certain to be disappointed.

In an open letter to the Prime Minister, ACOSS said 80% of people receiving JobSeeker payments have been receiving the benefit for more than 12 months. The same research found that seven in ten people on income support were eating less or reporting difficulty getting medicine or care. In December 2022, Anglicare found that there were 15 Jobseekers competing for each entry-level role.

“The longer people remain on income support, the harder it is to transition back into paid work,” the letter said.

ACOSS chief executive officer, Dr Cassandra Goldie, said post-Budget that while the $20 per week pay rise was welcome, it did not go far enough.

“The (increase) to JobSeeker and related payments is well below the Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee’s findings. The committee said that it needs to rise by at least $128 a week to ensure people can cover the basics.”

ACOSS and others are right to complain. Australia has the lowest rate of unemployment payment in the OECD. One in four people on Newstart have only a partial capacity to work because of illness or disability.

The ABC’s business reporter Gareth Hutchens wrote an intriguing analysis in May 2021 about the ‘full employment’ policies of governments prior to the 1970s. Then followed a policy aimed at creating a permanent pool of unemployed as a means of promoting economic growth and making Australia more globally competitive. Along with rising unemployment came a political ploy to blame the victim. The term ‘dole bludger’ emerged, first used by Liberal MP Bert Kelly, a pioneer of “New Right” political ideas. But the phrase was also promoted by Clyde Cameron, minister for labour in Gough Whitlam’s Labor government (1972-1975).

As unemployment soared in the mid-1970s, being without a job was recast as the fault of workers for being ‘too lazy’. There was much debate about the need for ‘overly generous’ income support. (Anyone who has ever been on it would dispute its  ‘overgenerosity’. Ed)

Policymakers from the early 1980s started using an unemployment rate of 5% as a deliberate policy tool.

“How could everyone be expected to find a job,” Hutchens wrote. “There haven’t been enough jobs to go around, by design.”

Now, almost 50 years later, the long-term unemployed are still being victimised over a deliberate policy to keep them out of work.

If I may hark back to a FOMM from 2018 when we speculated about what one could do were one made King for a Day:

King Bob decreed: “I’d single out the dysfunctional tax and welfare systems and propose the following reforms:

Introduction of a universal basic income for all adults: $25k a year, indexed, no strings attached. Adults are free to earn money over and above the $25k but will be taxed on a sliding scale to the maximum rate for anyone earning more than, say, $100k.

In my Kingdom, all forms of social welfare would be replaced by a new regime, overseen by the Office of Financial and Social Opportunity and Incentivisation (NOOFASOI). The office would oversee payment of the UBI and iron out the inevitable wrinkles in a new and untested system.”

In the real world, countries as diverse as Finland, France, Ireland, Norway, the US, Canada, New Zealand, Holland, Iceland, India and Brazil are either talking about a UBI or trialling it in one form or another. In 2016, the Parliament of Australia published this comprehensive yet concise policy paper by Don Henry, for those who want to find out more.

While I leave you to make of that what you will, I’ll be delving into the 997-page Budget, seeing what’s in it for me. As we all do.

Goodwill housing

While we’re all getting in the goodwill mood, Australians need to think seriously about this country’s housing problem. There isn’t enough of it to go around and what property is available is often out of the reach of low income households.

 Housing affordability chart

(Percentage of age groups with mortgages: ABS Surveys of Income and Housing)

This is no overnight thing. Tax concessions which favour property investors have led to a big swelling of their ranks – some 1.18 million. First there was negative gearing, re-introduced in 1985, which allows investors to claim rental expenses and interest on housing loans against their income. Second, the 50% capital gains tax exemption which property investors have enjoyed since 1999. Most invest on the expectation of future capital gain, rather than negative gearing benefits.

A 2014 article in The Conversation by Kate Shaw revealed that Australia’s GDP contribution of real estate transactions is the highest in the world – three times higher than in the US. Around one in seven Australian taxpayers owns one or more investment properties. Australia also has one of the highest levels of household debt in the OECD, due to mortgage borrowings.

As recent research on Australia’s rental market has found, those in the lowest 40% of gross income group struggle to meet rental costs and in capital city markets like Sydney or Melbourne pay up to 65% of their income for rental accommodation.

As a rule of thumb, low income earners paying 30% or more of their gross income in rent or mortgage payments are suffering housing stress.

Gavin Wood and Rachel Ong writing for The Conversation earlier this year underlined the growing problem of housing affordability. In 1982, the ABS survey of income and housing stated that 168,000 (or 10%) of home buyers spent more than 30% of their gross household income on housing costs. By 2011, those numbers had soared to 640,000, or 21% of all home buyers.

Wood and Ong also found that young first time buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to buy a home. As the chart above shows, the rate of home ownership in the 25–34 year age group slumped from 56% in 1982 to only 34% in 2011.

Wood and Ong say one in six Australians own two or more houses and 30% are holiday houses (2010 figures).

The Australian Housing Urban Research Institute (AHURI) says that while private rental is an important and growing part of our housing system, it has failed to serve the housing needs of low-income people. The 2006 ABS Census showed that 22% of households rent privately. In 2006, private renter dwellings numbered 1.47 million Australia-wide, an increase of 11 per cent since 2001.

But new research by A.C Nielsen for domain.com.au estimates that up to a third of Australians over 18 are renting, with higher proportions in the Northern Territory (43%) and Queensland (36%).

The stumbling block for people looking to rent a house or unit in a capital city is the up-front cost (usually a month’s rent and a bond (assuming $1000), not to mention storage and moving costs. FOMM figures the average establishment costs of a lease in one of five capital cities to be $2,828).

And domain’s rental market research shows it can be a short-lived reprieve, with 47% of Australians living in their current rental property for less than two years, and only 27% in the same property for more than five years.

Housing policy NGO National Shelter instigated the Rental Affordability Index as a response to media and political obsession with house purchase markets. The Index highlights the severe housing stress experienced by renting Australians. The report was produced by National Shelter, Community Sector Banking (CSB) and SGS Economics and Planning.

National Shelter executive officer Adrian Pisarski says the index fills major gaps in housing data, as it tracks household rents against household incomes in capital cities and regions across Australia.

“It reveals deterioration in our rental affordability, a result of 25 years of policy inadequacy and market failure. It shows why our low income households live in poverty and why life is a struggle, often a desperate one for moderate income working families.”

The RAI gives households who are paying 30% of income on rent a score of 100, a critical threshold for housing stress. A score below 100 indicates severe housing stress.

The report’s key finding is that while average rental affordability remained below 30% across all states, households in the lowest 40% of income consistently face severely and extremely unaffordable rents. This is the case in all regions of Australia. In the worst cases, non-family households are spending more than 60% of their income on housing (Sydney and Melbourne). Causes of homelessness, then, are shifting from traditional factors (escaping abuse, substance misuse, mental health issues), to being pushed out of the housing market by those with higher incomes.

People who are struggling to live on a government payment are the worst-affected by the crisis in affordable housing, according to the 2015 Anglicare Australia Rental Affordability Snapshot. The snapshot across all cities and regions shows that of the 65,500+ properties assessed for suitability, less than 1% were available for single people living on government allowances. Single people on the minimum wage would find 3.3% of these properties to be affordable. A working couple would fare better, with 23.8% of these properties suitable for their level of income. An age pensioner couple would find only 3.4% or 2,239 properties affordable.

Pisarski says the basic problem remains the lack of affordable rental properties and the lack of housing supply in general. He says one of the results is an emerging trends towards inter-generational living, with two and sometimes three generations under the one roof.

Australians are afforded little in the way of tenant protection, compared with cities in the US and Europe where rent controls and security of tenure are considered to be an important adjunct to social security.

Shaw makes a few broad comparisons between tenant legislation in Victoria and Germany. Rents can be increased in Victoria every six months with no limit on the amount (though the tenant may have grounds for appeal). In Germany, rent increases are capped at 20% every three years. In Victoria, 60 days is the standard amount of notice to vacate. In Germany notice varies according to how long the tenant has lived there: three months is the minimum for someone who has lived in the property for less than five years. Six months’ notice is required for a tenancy between five and eight years; nine months for longer than eight years.

In a perfect world, the Australian government would be looking to offer tax incentives to investors to rent to eligible (low-income) families at well below market rent. There was such a scheme, called the ‘National Rental Affordability Scheme’, but this only applied to investors building new dwellings, and as of September 2015, at least in Queensland, even this limited scheme was shut down:

To end this penultimate FOMM for 2015 on a cheery note, I read recently of one landlord who gave his tenants a one month ‘rent holiday’ as a Christmas present and thanks for being good tenants.