It is pure coincidence that Canada is holding a national election on April 28, a week ahead of Australia’s Federal poll. These elections come as US President Trump continues to dismantle the framework of America’s hard-fought democracy. The resistance from Canada thus far has been manifest. Australia, well, not so much.
As Trump rolls out his plan to arbitrarily gut the US public service, shut down dissent, deport ‘undesirables’ and wage war through economic sanctions, his actions have had an alarming effect on the mood of voters in the aforementioned countries.
Polls in Canada and Australia clearly show the US leader’s plan to turn the United States into an autocracy is affecting politics here and abroad. Canada’s deeply unpopular Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, resigned in January, acutely aware that despite a near ten-year reign, his chances of being re-elected were slim. Trudeau’s Liberal party (centre-left) was without a leader until Mark Carney, a political naif, a former central banker and businessman, was elected leader of the Liberal Party and consequently appointed as Prime Minister. Prime Minister Carney then called a snap election, at a time when Canada was deeply troubled by a cost of living crisis and a housing affordability scenario very much in parallel with Australia.
Carney and his Conservative opponent Pierre Poilievre have two things in common. They agree that the country is struggling with the cost of living crisis and housing shortages. They are, so far, united in their vocal opposition to economically damaging tariffs imposed by President Trump. They have also unilaterally rejected Trump’s notion of annexing Canada (his dream of the 51st state). Grassroots opposition to the US in takeover mode led to a national slogan, “Elbows Up”. This is an ice hockey reference which means defend yourself or fight back (imagine a defending player slamming his opponent into the rink wall at speed).
Canada’s tactics on Trump’s tariffs and resulting publicity has had a major effect on election polls, which had previously shown as much as a 25-point lead by Poilievre’s Conservative Party. This has now been reversed, according to some polls, into a 6 point lead to the Liberals.
Early voting started this week, at a time when Carney’s Liberal Party maintained a lead in voting intentions. The latest opinion polls showed over 43% of Canadians would likely vote for the Liberals compared with 38% favouring the Conservative Party (CBC poll tracker).
Political commentators in Canada and elsewhere conclude that the ‘Trump factor’ is having a dramatic effect on the election campaign. The ordinary voter, it seems, does not relish the idea of ending up with a strong leader whose rhetoric sounds too much like Donald Trump. We are seeing this happen in Australia too, with Conservative leader Perter Dutton and his Liberal (right) party cohort slipping in the polls. Late last year Mr Dutton seemed to be aligning himself to the US strong man, but that rhetoric has since been toned down.
The Guardian observed that of the five political parties represented in Canada’s parliament before the election was called, there are two main choices for Prime Minister- Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Such is the level of concern over Canada’s economic security and sovereignty, opposition voices such as the left wing New Democratic party have struggled to stay relevant.
The BBC’s analysis of the contest agrees – third place parties are struggling for survival. Unlike its counterparts in Australia and Europe, Canada’s Green Party is fighting to remain politically visible. The Green Party was recently disqualified from a televised debate for running too few candidates.
Polls suggest that the bulk of Canadians are opting to support either the Conservatives or the Liberals. The once influential New Democrats is polling at 8.5% (translating to just five seats out of 343). ND currently hold 24 seats. The separatist party, Bloc Québécois, stands to lose at least a dozen seats in Quebec.
Despite his lack of experience, Carney is steering his party to the centre, a tactic designed to draw swinging Conservatives to the Liberal fold.
Is this relevant to Australia as we head into the May 3 Federal election? Elbows Up: the key issues troubling voters are identical.
Housing affordability (and availability) and mortgage stress continue to bedevil working families both here in Australia and Canada.
My research assistant Al (I use him sparingly) turned this up:
“Housing affordability in Canada is a significant and growing concern, with rising home prices and limited supply contributing to a shortage of affordable housing options, particularly for renters and first-time homebuyers. A major factor is the high house-price-to-income ratio, meaning homes are disproportionately expensive relative to average household incomes.”
For Australia, Al produced this:
Housing affordability in Australia has deteriorated significantly, reaching its worst level on record due to rising home prices and high mortgage rates. A median-income household in 2023-2024 could afford only 14% of homes, marking a sharp decline from 43% three years prior. Low-income households are particularly affected, with families earning $50,000 per year able to afford only 3% of homes.
In Australia we can blame successive governments for refusing to even tinker with negative gearing (a tax shelter for those purchasing a home or homes as an investment, rather as a place for them to live). The last figure I saw (circa 2021), had 2.24 million Australians owning 3.25 million investment properties.
It was revealed recently that Perth is the most unaffordable housing market in Australia, with renters paying 30.6% of income on rent. At this level, that puts 42% of low income renters under stress.
It’s the sort of headline Québécois folk might read about Vancouver, way over there on the west coast, which routinely grabs ‘most expensive place to live’ headlines.
Opposition leader Poilievre has promised to cut regulations, diminish the role and size of government to facilitate homebuilding. Carney, meanwhile, is encouraging Canadians to accept government as having a key role in any mass home building effort.
The Guardian described Poilievre as a ‘brash populist and seasoned parliamentary “attack dog” who gives a voice to those who feel ignored by political elites. The Tory leader promised supporters he will crack down on crime, toughening sentences for the worst offenders. Did you read that Mr Crisafulli? Seconding that, Mr Dutton?
Canada’s parliamentary elections are held across 343 districts. Like the UK and Australia, the party with the most seats typically forms government. Trudeau’s Liberals, failing to win 172 seats in 2021, struck a supply deal with the New Democratic party. That’s not going to work this time.
In Australia, it seems we may end up with minority government, much like Trudeau’s coalition. The cashed-up Teals are ready to have another go and this election features independent candidates who may push incumbents to the brink. Keep an eye on Groom (Suzie Holt) and Dickson (where Labor candidate Ali France and independent Ellie Smith have been vigorously campaigning in Peter Dutton’s seat).
Just so you know, Dickson is the most marginal seat in Queensland, with Mr Dutton on a majority of just 1.7%. Labor has been pouring money into Ali France’s campaign and sent top level MPs to campaign alongside her, including Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek, Chris Bowen and Katy Gallagher. Dutton has accused Labor of ‘carpet-bombing’ his electorate to attract donors. If you have an abiding curiosity about this contest alone, you’ll find political journalist Karen Middleton’s take on it thorough and impartial (well, I thought so). She did remind me that sitting MPs John Howard and Tony Abbott lost their seats at Federal elections, so yes, it can and does happen.
