Bob Wilson - thegoodwills.com

It’s a Nation, Not Just an Economy

economists-recession-covid-19 — Recession? What recession? Image by www.pixabay.com

It’s traditional to write about economics and economists at this time of year, the end of the financial year in most jurisdictions. Publishers like to ask economists to offer their predictions for the year. The cruel editors then go back a year later and mark their score cards.

Forecasts are all very well in ‘normal’ times, but few had forecast a deadly global pandemic that (so far) would infect 10.5 million people and kill 511,000. Even in Australia, where the progress of the virus has been carefully monitored, we have had 7,832 infections and 104 deaths. The long-term effect on economies – ours and every other country’s – is yet to be seen.

Trying to forecast economic trends for the next year or two has been rendered difficult by the ongoing effects of COVID-19. Nevertheless, economists will try, because they are (in my experience) optimistic people. Before we go to our panel of experts (he said, sounding like David Speers on Sunday morning), let’s recap what the politicians are saying.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison recently promised to lift economic growth by “more than one percentage point above trend” (an average 4% per year), to 2025.

Economists from 16 universities in seven states came to a less ebullient conclusion, forecasting annual GDP growth averaging 2.4% over the next four years, “tailing off over time”.

22 economists were polled by The Conversation, an independent alliance of journalist and academics, and delivered their forecasts for the next four years.

The headline view is a weak recovery, getting weaker as time goes by, amid declining living standards. The panel expects weak economic growth in all but one of the next five years. The panel comprises macro-economists, economic modellers, former Treasury, IMF, OECD, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA),. financial market economists and a former member of the RBA board.

The panel included well-known doomsayer Steve Keen, who writes for Crikey and other publications. Keen was the economist who in January forecast a 75% probability of a recession.

The ANU’s Crawford School of Public Policy Visiting fellow Peter Martin wrote an 18-page report on the survey, warning that the results imply living standards 5% lower than what the PM expects. Moreover, the panel expects unemployment to peak at 10% and to be still above 7% by the end of 2021. Wages are unlikely to grow beyond 0.9% in 2020, lower than the rate of inflation (expected to be 1.2%).

I’m frankly surprised The Conversation found 22 economists prepared to forecast the future, particularly as it seems a second wave of COVID-19 is upon us. One economist withdrew from the panel before the poll saying, “It’s a mug’s game now”. Another who did participate said forecasting had been reduced to “guessing”, in the context of an unprecedented event.

The panel more or less agreed on expectations for incomes and production. They expect those figures to shrink when the June quarter figures are released, confirming that Australia is in a recession. The panel forecast an average 4.5% decline in GDP for 2020.

So what’s the good news?

The Government’s budget deficit will be easily financed, with the 10-year borrowing cost at 0.9% and the panel forecasting 1.4% per year thereafter and not expected to rise until late 2021.

The RBA has made a commitment to buy as many bonds as needed to keep the figure low. For this reason alone, Australia has maintained its AAA credit rating.

Mining investment is expected to continue its recovery in 2020 into 2021, after huge falls between 2014 and 2019, the latter attributed to the collapse in infrastructure projects and large LNG plants being completed.

It might be bread and circuses, but don’t forget the Federal Government is unleashing a second round of stimulus payments on July 10. Those eligible received the first payment between March and April. Stimulus payments include $750 for eligible pensioners, seniors, carers, student payment recipients and concession card holders.

Two stimulus payments totalling $1,500 might not seem like much but in terms of people with no disposable income, it is an absolute windfall.

A homeless person could spend his or her $750 on a swag or a Himalayan standard sleeping bag, fleecy pants and jacket, thick socks, underwear and a cheap pre-paid phone. They might even have money left over for smokes. If you are employed but have no disposable income, you might be tempted to yield to those ‘sale ends tomorrow’ exhortations to buy a smart TV, laptop, tablet or mobile phone.

Whether you are unemployed and poor or the working poor, the main problem is a lack of disposable income. The Conversation’s panel expects disposable income to fall on average 4.5% for the year to December 2020. Most also expect household spending to decline in calendar 2020 (by 4.3% on average).

Gloomy as this picture may be, it redresses the balance between reality and the daily ‘spin’ from State and Federal governments.

In his 1964 book, A Lucky Country, Donald Horne said Australia was “a lucky country run by second-rate people”. By that he meant that Australia was lucky to be blessed with natural resources and agricultural wealth, despite its second-rate political and economic system. Decades later, it seems, more Australians agree with Horne’s harsh assessment, which has been a set text in universities since it was published.

A 2018 survey showed that 40.56% of Australians have lost faith in the notion of democracy since 2007. Successions of administrations – Rudd, Gillard, Abbott, Gillard, Turnbull and Morrison – have evidently lost a lot of the people somewhere along the line. The Guardian mentioned this survey in a story about politicians billing taxpayers for doubtful travel expenses.

Trust and Democracy in Australia shows a majority of Australians have lost faith in democracy, from a high of 86.5% trusting in 2007 to 40.56% in 2018. As The Guardian’s Christopher Knaus and William Summers comment in their article on travel rorts, “On current trends, that would leave fewer than 10% of Australians trusting politicians and political institutions by 2025”.

We who live in this vast, under-populated democracy should be grateful for what we have. The sun is still shining, the water is potable, it’s a mild winter thus far; the supermarkets have replenished their shelves; the footy is back and life continues relatively untrammelled. (Ed: Broncos fans may not agree).

All up, Australia is a considerably better place to be than the favelas of Rio De Janeiro, the slums of Kolkata or Mexico City or even one of Donald Trump’s Republican States that thought the coronavirus was ‘fake nooz’.

Even in the UK, our far away traditional Motherland, last month’s relaxing of the COVID19 lockdown appears to have led to the emergence of 10 new hotspots across England. This unhappily coincides with news that the level of public debt has surpassed the UK economy for the first time since the 1960s.

If you are still feeling besieged, spare a thought for migrants forced out of Yemen at gunpoint by the Iran-backed Houthi militia that controls most of northern Yemen. The militia has expelled thousands of migrants since March, blaming them for spreading the coronavirus. According to a report in the New York Times this week, they were dumped in the desert without food or water.

Compare that to young Queenslanders complaining about not being allowed to dance at their local nightclub.

It’s all about perspective

(The Democracy 2025 report is available for download here):

FOMM back pages (despite the headline, this is about economics)

Cyber attacks and the Faraday cage

cyber-attacks-hackers — Image: Antoine Tevaneaux, Wikipedia CC: these women are protected from the electric arc by the Faraday Cage. (Palais de la Découverte in Paris.)

Just as I was thinking about the unexpected email from the Australian Taxation Office, She Who Mocks ScoMo called me in to watch a live press conference about cyber attacks.

Beware of State-based actors with sophisticated means to hack Australian infrastructure, began the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison (ScoMo).

“He’s dog-whistling,” interjected SWMS. This of course sent me off to google what ‘dog-whistling’ meant. After discounting a video of a wizened old Kiwi farmer in gumboots and a Swanndri using two-fingered whistling to direct his sheep dogs, I alighted upon this:

dog–whistle: a type of doublespeak used in political messaging. Dog whistles work by employing language that has normal meanings to the majority, but can be implied or loaded to mean very specific things to intended recipients.

In this context, there were several observations to be made – what was the government seeking to do by causing fear and trembling in a community already alarmed about the coronavirus? What news did the government not want to get out, hiding behind the ‘cyber-attack’ smokescreen?

I asked a couple of IT gurus I know what they made of it all.

“Whatever it is, just sandbox it,” said one (which means isolating the malicious email/code and testing it in a non-network environment).

“Well if Scotty from marketing says there are more state actors right now. you gotta believe him,” said our resident geek boy.

“I might even quit my day job and go after my real dream as a state actor. Hopefully they do the Scottish play. .. I know that one well.”

Chin up Scotty, they’re not taking you seriously – should they?

After analysing the press conference on Friday morning, I tend to agree with ScoMo’s “it hasn’t just started” caveat. The controversy over Russia’s involvement in social media manipulation of the 2016 US election is one example alone. CSO Australia recently listed the top 15 cyber security breaches of the last 20 years, ranked by the number of people whose personal data was stolen. Data belonging to 3.5 billion people was compromised in the top two alone (Adobe and Adult Friend Finder). Well-known names on the list include LinkedIn, Yahoo, eBay and Marriott International.

The PM refused to be drawn on which ‘State-based actor’ was the villain of the piece but journalists have, of course, made much of the role of China as the state power with the ability and the motive.

If there is anything useful to be drawn from ScoMo’s cyber attacks warning, it is perhaps to remind computer and smart phone users to do a regular Wi-Fi security audit.

The growing popularity of smart devices (Wi-Fi speakers, smart TVs, household appliances that take verbal orders and Bluetooth-enabled devices has just added new vulnerabilities to the wired household.

I use Bluetooth to hook up my phone in the car but I also to stream music to wireless speakers. No problem, you’d think.

Technology writer Dave Johnson says, rather colourfully in this article for howtogeek.com, that “Bluetooth is about as secure as a padlock sculpted from fusilli pasta.”

Johnson recently attended the Def Con 27 security conference where the first order of business was to ask delegates to disable Bluetooth while attending the conference.

Tyler Moffitt, a senior threat research analyst at Webroot, says there are “zero regulations or guidelines” as to how Bluetooth vendors should implement security. He also warned that smart phone users might not know that using Bluetooth with earbuds disables the smart lock, leaving the phone open to abuse.

Moving right along, the other security threat which bothers experts is the proportion of social media users who do not use or understand privacy settings. Password manager LastPass revealed in a recent blog how careless people are with their private information. A survey showed that 52% of respondents set their social media profiles to ‘public’ (open to FB’s 1.7 billion account holders!) The survey showed that 51% of social media users had shared vacation photos, an open invitation to burglars who troll social media. About 20% shared pictures of their house or neighbourhood and 25% shared pictures of their pets or kids).

The government’s over-kill way of bringing cyber security to ‘front of mind’ was timely, in that June and July are the peak scam months.

Our end of financial year reminder from the ATO did seem genuine, given it was addressed to the recipient by name. We became suspicious in that the email encouraged clicking on links to ‘learn more’ – something the ATO says it never does.

That is an example of the common email scam known as ‘phishing’, an attempt by someone posing as a legitimate institution to trick individuals into providing sensitive data. An article from The Conversation, titled “Don’t be phish food!” cited below, summarises why you should be suspicious of bogus emails. Phishing scammers are not afraid to impersonate government agencies, banks or large institutions – even your own ISP!

If it looks real but you were not expecting it – be wary.

The very least you can do to avoid cyber attacks is change your computer logon passwords. This was one of the key messages from The Australian Cyber Security Centre. ACSC’s website advisory says the attackers are primarily using “remote code execution vulnerability” to target Australian networks and systems. That is, the attacker attempts to insert their own software codes into a vulnerable system such as a server or database, thus taking control. That, folks, is why Windows 10 keeps updating your operating system.

While you are at it, change all of the passwords you use for social media, web-based email and any website which holds your financial information. Make them complex passwords of at least 8 and preferably 10 characters. Check your social media settings and ensure that you are set to private and friends only (or at worst, friends of friends). If you are on the Facebook app Messenger, don’t open videos, even if they are sent by your lover or maiden aunt. Much-circulated ‘joke’ videos containing malicious code are often used to hack someone’s Facebook account. (What – you didn’t know that?)

If all else fails, you could purchase a Faraday Cage, invented in the late 1800s by an English scientist (Faraday). The cage is an enclosed space made of conductive material that blocks electromagnetic signals. Wi-Fi and cellular signals are rendered useless inside the cage.Any spy worth his 2020 clearances would have mini-Faraday cages at home and work in which to keep smart phones and other hackable devices safe from cyber attacks.

Coincidentally, this week we just started watching season five of the quality French spy thriller, The Bureau*, where the Faraday Cage got a mention in episode one or two. This up to the minute drama, while fictional, nonetheless references present day political pariahs including Trump, Putin and Assad.

In the early episodes we see one of the protagonists in a Russian troll factory – a vast air conditioned room where drones fly a circuit to make sure the worker bees are not eating baklava at their keyboards.

If you are really concerned about cyber attacks, you could get an engineer, an architect and a builder to collaborate on the hacker-proof house, modelled on the Faraday Cage.

Shouldn’t cost that much.

(By all means, watch ‘The Bureau’, but only if you don’t mind numerous gratuitous sex scenes. It is French, after all. And you can improve your French language skills too, if you don’t look at the sub-titles. Ed.)

The Listener and The Discerning Reader

The-Listener-magazines-discerning — A selection of the hundreds of magazine titles on offer in Australia (image courtesy of TSG Lotto Express, Warwick)

One of my research assistants asked this week if I wanted his back issues of The Listener. I’m now regretting my luke-warm response, given that it is barely two months since the owner, Bauer Media, closed down New Zealand’s 81-year-old current affairs magazine.

German-owned Bauer Media had been trying to sell its magazines in Australasia for a while. Things came to a head with COVID-19, as magazines were not considered “essential” under NZ’s strict level four restrictions. Print publication ceased abruptly and although all of Bauer’s magazines still have an online presence, editorials have not been updated since April 1. A sale of Bauer’s Australian and New Zealand magazines, has, meanwhile, been moved to the front-burner.

The German media group pulled the pin on its New Zealand titles on April 2. The first inkling staff had was an early morning Zoom conference call which put everyone out of work.

Titles axed by Bauer Media included New Zealand Listener, New Zealand Woman’s Weekly, Metro, North & South, Next, Fashion Quarterly and many others. This week, news broke that the German publisher has agreed to offload its Australian and New Zealand magazines, including The Australian Woman’s Weekly and New Idea, to buyout fund Mercury Capital.

The Hamburg based family-owned publisher had owned these magazines since 2012, when it paid Nine Entertainment Co $525 million for its magazine division. In the eight years since, Bauer Media has closed many titles including Dolly, Cleo, Cosmopolitan and tabloid mags People and Picture.

The New Zealand Herald this week speculated that Mercury Capital might run into some obstacles in getting its New Zealand magazines up and running, as many former staffers have moved on to other projects.

The most recent editor of The Listener, Paul Little, believed the lost magazines “contributed to New Zealand’s cultural landscape”.

In a Hawkes Bay Today editorial, Little rightly noted that Australia has no equivalent of The Listener, Metro or North & South. Little said the titles reflected New Zealand concerns in a way other media don’t. “They allow voices to be heard that will now be silenced.”

I grew up in a newspaper-reading household, one in which the weekly copy of The Listener, New Zealand’s only national current affairs magazine, was eagerly shared (once Dad was finished with it).

The core of The Listener was a national TV and radio guide, tucked at the end of the magazine with the crosswords and Sudoku.

According to an official history, The New Zealand Listener, launched in 1939, soon expanded beyond its original brief to publicise radio programmes. It became the country’s only national weekly current affairs and entertainment magazine.

The Listener’s paid circulation peaked at 375,885 in 1982; but even after losing its TV guide monopoly, it was still one of the country’s top-selling and best-loved magazines.

Paul Little defended his former stable of quality, independent magazines as “essential to diversity”.

“They provide a home for ideas that’s not duplicated anywhere else. They have also been, in my experience, editorially independent.”

Little described the government’s decision to treat magazines as “non-essential” as “precipitate”.

“Magazines have survived this long because they do something unique. They have a singular, almost intimate relationship with their readers.”

Whatever the fundamental problem with magazines in 2019-2020, readership is not the issue. Roy Morgan data for the year to December 2019 found that six out of New Zealand’s top 10 magazines increased readership. The top three were AA Directions, NZ Woman’s Day and New Zealand Listener.

Likewise in Australia, Roy Morgan readership figures published for the year to June 30, 2019, revealed that 15,227 million Australians aged 14+ (73.7%) read magazines in print or online, either via the web or an app. This number is up 1.2%, or 187,000, from a year ago.

The best-read (paid) magazines in Australia are Better Homes and Gardens and The Woman’s Weekly (Coles Magazine is the leading free publication with five million readers).

Some magazines continue to thrive as a result of what researchers call “cross-platform audience” – e.g. someone who lives in Kingaroy reading the online editions of quality magazines like The Atlantic, Time or The New Yorker.

Given recent media sales and buyouts in the magazine world you’d have to say the industry is in a state of flux.

Time magazine has a global print edition readership of 23 million and while it has, in recent years, cut its print circulation to two million, it is still the magazine considered as a world leader, even though it ranks only 10^th in circulation in the US.

Two recent changes of ownership magnify the trend towards digital magazines and a heavier focus on lifestyle and entertainment. In November 2017, Meredith Corporation announced its acquisition of Time, Inc., backed by Koch Equity Development. In March 2018, only seven weeks after the closure of the sale, Meredith announced that it would explore the sale of Time and sister magazines Fortune, Money and Sports Illustrated as they “did not align with the company’s lifestyle brands”.

Newspaper and magazine owners are notorious for giving little or no notice before closing down publications. Cases in point include The Listener et al (2020), Brisbane’s tabloid The Daily Sun (1991) and Australia’s oldest print magazine, The Bulletin (2008). The latter was closed by press release a day after the last edition hit the news-stands. Although winning journalism awards under its last editor (John Lehmann, now editor of The Australian), it was considered not financially viable with a circulation of only 58,000.

This is a global problem, spelt out in numbers in a Guardian report last year. The top 10 chart of consumer titles that readers buy or subscribe in the UK recorded a total circulation of 4.7m in the first half of 2019, compared with 9.4m in the first six months of 2001.

Marie Claire (the thinking woman’s magazine), shut down its UK edition last year after 31 years of expanding female horizons (although it is still published here). Other British magazines to succumb to the digital revolution included the venerable music mag NME and so-called ‘Lad’s Mags’ FHM, Loaded, Maxim, Nuts and Zoo. Female-focused titles such as More!, Look, Instyle, She magazine and Reveal also closed.

One might be able to predict the inevitable populist trend in magazines and the drift to digital-only by watching what happens to Time after two ownership changes in three years.

In September 2018, Meredith announced that it would re-sell Time Inc. and its stable of titles to internet billionaire Marc Benioff and his wife Lynne for $190 million. The deal was completed on October 31, 2018.

In whatever form it survives, Time will be remembered for its enduring ‘Man of The Year’ cover tradition (changed to ‘Person of the Year’ in 1999).

FOMM readers who delight in well expressed prose will enjoy this comment about Time:

Time’s early writing style apparently made regular use of inverted sentences, much less so after being parodied in 1936 by Wolcott Gibbs in The New Yorker:

“Backward ran sentences until reeled the mind […] Where it all will end, knows God!” Gibbs quoth.

Last week: Yes, of course Ed’s comments were not meant to be there at the end. You may note the suggestions were studiously ignored.

FOMM back pages

Arts Take Virtual Performance To Another Level

One evening in April, a Kiwi songwriter friend living in London posted a YouTube video by the London Humanist Choir, performing a love song in Māori. The video of New Zealand’s unofficial anthem, Pokarekare Ana, was, as we are now accustomed, a multi-screen video with choir members recording their parts remotely. I shared this with a few Kiwi friends who live elsewhere, knowing it would tug at the tendrils of homesickness, which are almost always waving in the breeze.

This video has had some 37,000 views – not bad for an arts group with 322 subscribers. The group’s social media curator coined the cute phrase, ‘Choir-antine’.

The group’s leader, Alex Jaye, started by giving the choir singers notes on how to record, mostly to minimise unwanted noise, distortion and filtering. Once he received the 20+ videos, he used EQ and compression to correct problems detected in the audio (often due to mobile phone microphones).

“Very little corrective editing (on individual videos) was used as it kills the sense of there being a choir – which does invite blemishes naturally as part of the sound.

Mr Jaye used iMovie to edit the video, utilising picture-in-picture, a technique often used in sports broadcasts.

“Overall it was around a day’s worth of work, however mostly due to video editing not being my forte, so I would say all told five to six hours’ worth of editing.”

In the same vein, a virtual video by Camden Voices does Cindi Lauper’s True Colours a lot of justice.

Like Alex Jaye, the UK choir’s director Ed Blunt started by giving singers instructions for filming the videos to a click track (metronome).

“It was a steep technological learning curve for me as I only had limited experience with video editing.”

He also converted the individual video formats into a uniform file type. The video was synchronised separately from the audio and the different grids were arranged and then exported (one at a time) to an editing programme (Premiere Pro). The audio tracks were synced and mixed in Logic.

My point, before we get too much further into this topic, is the value of such contributions to the community in general. True Colours (this version) has had 1.64 million views. If even 10% of the people who watched this sent Camden Voices $1, they would be able to top up their larder, probably bare these past months from a lack of paid performances.

True Colours:

Sunshine Coast choir director Kim Kirkman concurs with the complexities involved in editing a virtual video. He produced a Zoom video for female barbershop group Hot Ginger Chorus, performing Cindi Lauper’s Time after Time.

“The audio part is the challenging part for me. I have to put 25 voices in line with each other and check that they are all correct. That takes quite a lot of time. The visual is very easy. I just do two runs through Zoom and then stitch that together over the top of the audio that I’ve done previously.”

Time after Time:

Musicians, performing artists, actors and dancers were quick to adapt the technology to the life of isolation. Anyone with a smart phone and the ability to film themselves could play. The production values on numerous videos by orchestras, jazz bands, country musicians and choirs have, for the most part, been outstanding.

The ‘Quarantunes’ series by the Nelson family (Willie and sons Lukas and Micah) is worth a look. Lukas, who wrote a lot of the music for the hit movie A Star is Born, is the one singing, in case you were wondering!

Turn off the TV and build a Garden:

Queensland Ballet is a local example of an arts company creating ‘mini-ballets’ to keep subscribers’ appetites whetted for next year’s season. On May 21, QB made the difficult announcement that it was postponing its 2020 season to 2021.

Queensland Ballet Artistic Director Li Cunxin AO said the company was planning a reintroduction of activity “in a cautious and methodical manner to optimize dancer and community safety”.

Mr Li said in a statement that the decision was also based on feedback from patrons that they may wish to wait until 2021 to enjoy ballet again.

“We have also undertaken economic modelling which has considered potential social distancing restrictions that would render any return to the stage as extremely costly and potentially detrimental financially to the company.”

If you are a ballet fan (and FOMM’s research suggests that readers are more likely to follow the arts than the NRL), you can donate money this month and a benefactor will quadruple your gift. So your humble $25 turns into $100 and so on. To keep the faith, QB is posting 60 short dance videos through the month of June.

Britain’s National Theatre has been filming live performances and streaming them every Thursday. The most recent play is Shakespeare’s Coriolanus, starring Tom Hiddleston. There was also a performance of Frankenstein starred Benedict Cumberbatch as the monster. Imagine!

This is high art delivered with a generosity of spirit while the theatre is closed to patrons until at least August 31. If you think about what tickets to live theatre cost in Australia, you could log on to PayPal and send them a few quid!

I rather liked comedian Sammy J’s Antique Roadshow piss-take recently where he evaluated the worth of a pair of tickets to a live event. As the faux antique owner says, “you mean people used to leave their houses?”

We might bear this satire in mind, given that this week the first patrons will be allowed into live rugby league games. The National Rugby League apparently pointed out that pubs and clubs were allowed to have up to 50 patrons on their premises (subject to social distancing rules). So, the NRL said, it was only fair that rugby league fans to be allowed in limited numbers, confined to the catering sections of stadiums.

It will be interesting to see if Fox Sports abandons its naff ‘virtual crowd’ audio, the sports equivalent of canned laughter in a comedy show where there is no audience.

Andrew Moore of the ABC’s sports show Grandstand left no room for ambiguity when he commented on this during a lull in play.

“When two players are down injured like this (a head clash known as ‘friendly fire’), the crowd would normally go quiet. Let’s have a listen (pushes window open). Nah, nothing! No fake crowd noise on the ABC, folks.”

Which is as good a point as any to observe that while arts communities were getting creative through the March/April covid-19 restrictions, the best Channel Nine (the home of rugby league) could come up with was re-runs of State of Origin matches from bygone eras. the transition over the next 12 months.

The best advice to choirs and singers in general is dire – there is no safe way to practice public singing while the coronavirus is active.

Dr Lucinda Halstead, one of the experts quoted in this paper, says physical distancing on a stage for a choir would not be possible:

“You would need a football stadium to space apart the Westminster choir”.

The reality is that normal transmission will not be resumed until social distancing ends (as is now the case in New Zealand).

Kia kaha (be strong).

Not everyone has Internet access

I visited my local library last week for the first time in months and noticed that public internet access (computers, desks and chairs), had been removed. Desks, tables and chairs had also been removed from the reading room, where one could sit for hours browsing newspapers and magazines or working on jigsaw puzzles.

“That’s not very fair on people who don’t have a computer or access to WIFI,” said She Who Believes in Equality.

A survey published in March this year, citing Australian Bureau of Statistics data, showed that 2.5 million Australians are not online. Reasons given by respondents included affordability issues, location (poor signal or no signal), or that they lacked the 21^st century skill called ‘digital literacy’.

The Centre for Social Inclusion (CSI) produces the National Digital inclusion Index, based on data from Roy Morgan Research.

Since data was first collected in 2014, Australia’s overall digital inclusion score has risen by 7.9 points, from 54.0 to 61.9. Improvements have been evident across all three categories: Access, Affordability and Digital Ability. CSI notes in its 2019 report that those with the lowest ADII score are in the lowest socio-economic demographic (income under $35,000), with a score of 43.3 points. The Northern Territory is excluded from the research (sample too small), but indigenous Australians living elsewhere scored 55.1.

The digital divide is an obvious social strata marker, with a 30.5 point difference between the lowest income demographic (43.3) and the highest (73.8).

The 2019 survey shows that all segments of the digital access market improved on their 2018 score. Scores are allocated to particular geographic regions and socio-demographic groups, over a six-year period from 2014 to 2019. People aged 65 and over are the least digitally included age group, with a score of 48 (13.9 points below the national average).

I know a few elders who, for one reason or another, refuse to engage with the digital world, clinging on to old analogue TV sets and VCRs, eschewing mobile phones and in some cases, not even having an answering machine. The NBN is relentlessly catching up with this cohort. Moreover, financial institutions are forcing these older customers to abandon time-honoured way of paying bills (by cheque and in person).

As an aside, when I first tried to source the CSI report, I was ironically greeted with the message, “bandwidth exceeded, try later”.

We’re all getting a lot of messages like that with the weight of people using Facebook, Twitter and their affiliates 24/7, not to mention streaming movies, TV series and engaging in bandwidth-using virtual performances and community catch ups.

Last time I wrote about this subject, 90,000 Australians were still using dial-up modems to surf the Internet. That annoying yet welcoming modem squeal is heard no longer, at least not by Telstra customers. Telstra retired its dial-up service In December 2015, citing a sharp drop off in the numbers of people still using dial-up in favour of a variety of connectivity options.

When I last worked for the now mostly digital regional news services, when we went to public meetings in rural areas, we’d take a portable modem. The mid-1980s version was a device you clamped to the handset of a (dial up) phone and then transmitted your news report from the laptop. News organisations spent a fortune equipping field reporters with clunky laptops which weighed at least 10kg and cost thousands. When the technology inevitably did not work, reporters simply called a ‘copy-taker’ at HQ and dictated the story.

Copy-takers are long gone, and the rest of the old school cohort who had not already taken a redundancy package will most likely be swept out the door in the latest media shakeout.

But getting back to the 2.5 million Australians who told survey takers they do not have access to the Internet.

A group of 30 community organisations has called for urgent efforts to help Australians not connected to the internet. The group told the Sydney Morning Herald that the pre-existing problem was heightened during the pandemic, hindering access to government services; for example, children trying to undertake online education and people needing access to telehealth services.

The group asked Communications Minister Paul Fletcher to consider ‘targeted low-cost broadband’ connections for eligible households, a relief package of basic telecommunications equipment and a telephone service for people with low digital literacy.

Of those Australians who do have Internet access, more than four million use mobile only to ‘gain access to the internet’ (note how I refuse to verb a noun). This means they have a mobile phone or mobile broadband device with a data allowance, but no fixed connection. This cohort rated a low ADII score of 43.7, some 18.2 points below the national average (61.9). Mobile data costs substantially more per gigabyte than fixed broadband, which means mobile-only users are unlikely to be binge-watching Narcos, House of Cards or Killing Eve.

Mobile-only use is linked with socio-economic factors, with up to a third of people in low-income households, those with low levels of education and the unemployed more likely to be using mobile-only.

Now here’s what at first sight seems to be an anomaly. You would know the oft-quoted homeless numbers in Australia – around 116,000 at the last Census. However, as the survey found, homeless people find phones essential for survival and safety, job prospects and for moving out of homelessness.

Consumer advocate The Australian Communications Consumer Action Network (ACCAN), cited a Sydney University study that found 92% of Australians who identify as homeless (95% in Sydney and Melbourne), own a mobile phone. The homeless favour smart phones (77% of those surveyed had a pre-paid plan for a smart phone). They typically use free WIFI and public access (libraries) to keep costs down.

You might well ask, “How can a homeless person afford a smart phone?”

Well, I bought one last week for $29! It is destined to replace an unreliable IPod as a portable music player. But it also has all of the apps anyone needing a survival tool could ever use. And you can use it to call someone or send a text!

Apps take up most of the memory in this bargain phone. But even so, a minimum $10 a month would make this a handy ‘Where am I sleeping tonight?’ tool.

The annual Deloitte Australia Mobile Use Survey’s key finding is that mobile penetration in Australia has maxed out at 91% (about 20 million users), and accordingly, sales are slowing. The main reason for this is that Australians are holding on to their phones longer (three years on average).

If you are at all interested in how mobile technology is developing, this report (you need to sign up to download it), is illuminating.

For example, did you know that mobile is starting to lose ground to voice-assisted speakers (a 51% increase since 2018), as the preferred user method of ‘gaining access to’ home services and entertainment?

(“OK, Google, play ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ by Queen” – but you have to train the thing to recognise your accent…Ed)

As an observation on the recent move by News Ltd to shut down many print titles and move most of the survivors online, mobile remains our preferred device to consume news. Having said that, Australians are less interested in tuning in at all, with only 39% reading the news weekly, compared to 48% last year.

And, as if we did not already know, 27% of Australia’s 17.9 million smart phone owners use their device at least once a week to watch a TV series or movies, up from just 5% in 2015! I relate to this statistic, as I covertly watch Killing Eve on my smart phone, as She Who Believes in Equality chooses not to watch.

Bandwidth exceeded – try later.

FOMM back pages: https://bobwords.com.au/friday-on-my-mind/ Hold the phones 2014

A doggy tale in the time of covid-19

By Guest FOMMer Laurel Wilson

dogs-covid-19 — Rex and assorted Canadian children

As anyone who knows me would realise, I love dogs and have had various four-legged companions ever since I can remember. ‘Foxie’ was the first one − a small, non-descript, furry golden mutt, who apparently decided our place was an improvement on her previous abode.

Then came ‘Rex the wonder dog’ (or at least, that’s what I called him), also a mutt, but who looked quite a bit like a Border Collie. As is the case with most dogs surrounded by small children, he was the soul of patience and accepted with good grace my various attempts to dress him up or get him to do tricks. He had an endless capacity for ‘shake a paw’.

Then came a hiatus of quite a few years, involving moving to Australia, going to high school and later university, when I was either not living at home or too broke to contemplate acquiring a dog of my own. (There was a brief interlude with a cat called Pith, but it just wasn’t the same…)

dogs-covid-18 — Tilbi and pups, including “Ankle-biter”

When I was more settled and could afford it, the sweetest dog I’ve ever known came into my life. This was ‘Tilbi’ (which I believe means ‘duck’ in one of the Aboriginal languages). This was an appropriate name for a Golden Retriever, although, apart from one embarrassing incident with a couple of tame ducks, she never got to follow that particular life path.

The closest she came to it was when the occasional ‘chook show’ was held at the Showgrounds over the road from our old place. Tilbi and her daughter Finis were in ecstasy whenever that event occurred, whining and scratching at the gate in a desperate effort to ‘retrieve’ those feathered objects of doggy lust. Apart from that, she was a most obedient and loving dog, who was fond of all humans, from toddlers to the rather ancient fellow who lived over the back fence. (Ed: One day Tilbi came home with a pot roast in her mouth (a neighbour left it on the window sill to cool).

A few years later, the most independent-minded dog I’ve ever experienced became part of the household. This was ‘Kia’, the German Shepherd (named before the vehicle of that make became popular, I might add – it was more a nod to our Kiwi rellies, as in Kia Ora, or ‘Hello’). She was obedient to a point, especially if she was in reach, but coming back when called was an optional extra, as far as she was concerned. But she was a very intelligent dog. For instance, in her later, more arthritic years, she struggled to get into the back of the station wagon, so we put a box down in front of the open tail-gate. She got the idea almost immediately. And she had a sense of humour. One of her favourite games was to play ‘chasey’ around the car when we were trying to catch her before going out. She’d eventually take pity on us and let herself get caught.

The latest four-legged addition is Nib, the mostly Staffie brindle ‘brick on legs’, who spends much of the evening acting as my own personal knee blanket. It’s wonderful in winter, not so good in summer. He is without a doubt the most obedient dog I’ve ever come across – for which we take no credit. He is most reliable about coming back when called, walks nicely on the lead, doesn’t respond if other dogs bark at him, goes outside when asked, gets out of the kitchen when I’m cooking, and seems to have quite a good grasp of various other commands, or as I like to put it, polite requests. His only fault is that, like most other Staffies, he ‘sings’, especially when he is in the car. And his ‘song’ is not pleasant to the ear…

See, I managed to get all this way without mentioning ‘Iso’ or ‘Covid’, but dogs have apparently come into their own during this period. Those with dogs are thankful for their company and the impetus to go for a walk. Many of those without dogs are apparently taking the opportunity to acquire one while they have the time to welcome one into their lives. Hopefully, they head to a nearby Animal Shelter to pick out their new friend, and hopefully, these new pets won’t find their way back there post-Covid.

I make no claim to the following observations being original, but I too have noticed that people have turned into dogs – roaming around the house all day, looking for something to eat; rushing to the front door when anyone knocks; peering through the window at the unusual sight of a passer-by; and getting terribly excited at the prospect of going for a drive in the car…

Here’s to all the dogs I have met in my life, including Bindi, Logan, Tosca, Patch, Stella, Moet, Dante, Winnie (the poodle – which scores the prize for cleverest name), Motek, Joey, Fleur, Spud, Darcy, Wally and all those friendly pooches who accept a pat from a passing stranger.

Postscript by Bob (taking a break this week while dreaming up new topics).

Our first dog was a cocker spaniel named Lady who was left with a family friend in Scotland when we all caught the migrant boat in 1955. Dad was heartbroken but the alternative was quarantining an old dog for six weeks at sea and then a month on land.

Once settled in New Zealand we acquired a fox terrier with the imaginative name of Spot. He could be a crabby critter and Mum didn’t like him much for his habit of lying on the front step and then snarling when she tried to step over him.

He was a wee bit epileptic, Spot, and also had a habit of eating grapefruit then spitting shredded citrus out all over the lawn.

As an older adult I took up with She Who Tried For Best In Show who owned Tilbi. Later we acquired a litter of eight Golden Retriever puppies, keeping one (Finis).

Now we find ourselves in 2020, as SWTFBIS points out, responsible for a rising nine-year-old Staffie who is quite needy but also quite endearing. He is slowly adjusting to life in the suburbs where people walk past the house (don’t bark, good dog, treat).

I usually cannot resist clicking on the many dog videos, gifs and memes which have proliferated as Iso forces dog owners to spend more time with their furry pals. I like the mindlessly cute ones where cats (or dogs) jump over increasingly higher stacks of toilet rolls.

If you have not seen the videos of Scottish sports commentator Andrew Cotter turning the daily antics of his two dogs into a sports call, there are quite a few. He may be bored but he definitely loves these Labradors – and, as with all dogs, it is mutual.

*Correction: In last week’s blog about the coronaconomy, I mentioned Jobseeker in the third paragraph and again near the end. It should have read Jobkeeper.

How deep is the financial hardship well?

financial-hardship-savings — How many weeks your savings will last without income – graph provided by The Grattan Institute

It is probably no comfort to anyone to reflect on the year when investors could get 14.95% on a bank term deposit. It was January 1991, the recession Paul Keating said we had to have. People with personal loans and credit card debt watched horrified as repayment rates went to 20% and beyond. The average variable mortgage rate rose to 17.5% at the same time. The gap between the haves and have-nots in that era was painfully obvious.

In the early 1990s, financial hardship forced many younger Australians, unable to service their mortgage repayments, to walk out of their mortgaged houses, leaving the house keys on the bank’s counter. Meanwhile, the lucky worker/investor with a lazy $100k to invest could earn $14, 950 in interest (the price of a new car), over 12 months with no risk whatsoever. Except, of course, if the deposit was with one of the eight financial institutions that went broke in that era.

In 2020, the COVCID-19 pandemic has certainly made it clear how many Australians are suffering financial hardship. At one end of the scale, you have self-funded retirees, on the pig’s back, really, but struggling with the collapse in the value of shares and difficulties finding safe places to store their cash for a return of more than 1.75%.

At the other end of the generational spectrum, while the official unemployment figure is an improbably low 6.2%, it does not reflect the one million casuals who not only lost their jobs, but did not qualify for the Federal Government’s safety net, Jobkeeper.

COVID-19 struck at a time when the Australian household savings rate had dropped to 3.6% (20% is the ideal), and is forecast to drop to 2% or lower in 2021-22. The rate is calculated as a percentage of the amount saved from disposable income.

Meanwhile household debt – most of it linked to mortgages – is at a high of 119.60% of GDP. Economist Gerard Minack told the 7.30 Report in November that household debt at 200% of household income was a “massive macro risk”.

Then came COVID-19 and an economic shutdown the likes of which the country has not seen since the 1930s.

I’m running these confronting numbers past you because there is a lot of nonsense written about Poor Pensioners vs Irresponsible Millenials. Also, some commentators, particularly in the housing sector, are ‘talking it up’ at a time when worst-case scenarios predict a 30% drop in prices.

Conversely, stock market analysts are talking the market down, even as it keeps (slowly) recovering. You have to wonder why.

In mid-April the share market was officially proclaimed a “bull market’’ by the Australian Financial Review (AFR), because share prices had jumped 20% since mid-March.

What’s amazing is that the market has rallied at the same time that Australian superannuation funds paid $9.4 billion in financial hardship paymentsto approximately 1.17 million fund members. Australian super funds have a large exposure to equities, so they have managed the payments so far by selling investments, including shares and holdings in managed funds.

They also asked for help. As the AFR’s exceptionally well-informed Chanticleer observed, The Australian Superannuation Fund Association (ASFA) put a proposal to Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to allow the Australian Taxation Office to cover the hardship withdrawal payments. The plan was super funds would repay the payments over a period of time. The industry also called on the Reserve bank of Australia to provide a liquidity buffer. None of this happened, but Australian funds are expecting a continuation of the rush to withdraw hardship payments.

Under the COVID-19 measures, individuals whose income has been affected can withdraw up to $10,000 of their superannuation balances prior to June 30. They can, if necessary, apply for a further $10,000 after June 30.

There are ordinarily a few hoops to jump through to apply for an early-release hardship payment. As we know, superannuation is meant to be locked away until you retire or reach an age when you can officially tap the fund for money. But in these dire times, super funds worked with the Australian Tax office and other government departments to expedite hardship payments.

By close of business on May 7, ASFA made around 1,175,000 individual payments, totalling around $9.4 billion in temporary financial support. ASFA estimated that 98% of applications were paid within five working days.

Applying for a super hardship payment is a risky business if you are under 35. According to AMP, the average super balance for people aged 25-29 is $23,371 for men and $19,107 for women. In the age group 30-34, the average balance for men is $43,583 and for women $33,748. So it does not take too many trips to the hardship well to run out of cash. I used those age groups deliberately, as most pollsters agree that so-called Millennials are people now aged between 22 and38.

But it is not just the young that have little in the way of savings. According to the Grattan Institute, 50% of working households have less than $7,000 in savings. This probably explains the rush of super fund hardship applications. The Institute admits the data is a few years old, but says the scenario is unlikely to have changed much.

“As you might expect, working households on lower incomes tend to have less in the bank. Among working households in the bottom fifth of household income, the median total bank account balance is just $1,350.

“The meagre savings of many low-income workers are a big worry because they are most likely to be employed as casuals and therefore not have paid sick leave or annual leave.”

The Grattan Institute makes the point that as the lockdown drags on, more people will start to run out of ready cash.

“Our analysis shows that half of working households have five to six weeks’ income or less in the bank. The bottom 40% of working households has about three weeks’ income or less in the bank. A quarter of all working households have less than one week’s income in the bank.”

This last figure may bring your head up, if you remember news stories from New York, which we found shocking, of people with less than $400 in the bank.

Sometimes I think about these matters when doing the weekly grocery shopping, where retail prices are clearly outpacing inflation. (Ed: We did score a large pumpkin from a roadside stall for $3, so you can get lucky).

Those with a job who have not had a pay increase in years can justifiably feel cheated. Admittedly, the Federal Government came to the National Cabinet table with an extraordinary rescue package. But while one of these measures temporarily doubled the unemployment payment overnight, it now seems to be flawed piece of legislation.

People may rightly point out that employers are obliged to pass on the Jobkeeper payment of $1,500 a fortnight, regardless of what the employee was being paid previously. At some stage, these payments will stop and we will revert to the status quo. Will recipients who were technically overpaid have to repay some of this money, or does it just go to the deficit?

Robodebt II, coming soon to a cinema near you.

FOMM backpages:

Ross River Fever and other viruses

Ross-Rivr-Fever-viruses — The eastern saltmarsh mosquito – image Wikimedia CC

There is an ongoing household discussion here about the sliding screen door, which, if left open, exposes us to mosquitos, potentially carrying Ross River Fever. (It’s tempting to leave the door open so the dog, who lacks an opposable thumb, can get in and out at will. Ed)

Of course, we could just as soon be bitten when outside for a multitude of reasons (gardening, watering, chopping firewood, walking the dog at dusk). Nevertheless, I can tell if the screen door has been left open for a period as mosquitos the size of bees invade my study. It seems mine is the sort of blood to which mosquitos are attracted. I found that out big time on our caravanning adventures in the Northern Territory and Western Australia. If your blood group is type O or you are mosquito-prone, this article might be of interest.

North Queensland, the Territory and the Kimberley are among the places where one is most likely to be bitten by a mosquito carrying Ross River Virus (RRV). This is a disease for which there is no vaccine and no cure. And, despite common perceptions that it is a tropical disease, RRV can occur anywhere in Australia. An article in our local paper in early May revealed 121 cases were reported in the Darling Downs Health region in the March quarter. This is considerably higher than the norm (67 cases a year).

Condamine Medical Centre Dr Lynton Hudson told the Warwick Daily News his concern about Ross River Fever was that some patients may not come in for a physical consult due to COVID-19 fears.

As you’d expect, several years of drought followed by a late wet season, contributed to increased numbers of the southern saltmarsh mosquito, the type most likely to carry the virus. Complicating this year’s cycle is a mild autumn, which means mosquitos are still out and about, particularly at dawn and dusk.

As it happens, a member of our inner circle has recently been diagnosed with RRV, which started with a hives-like rash and a temperature. Fearing something dreadful like Lupus, she went to the local GP who, after some tests, diagnosed Ross River Fever. Stage two of the disease is swollen joints accompanied by arthritic pain and fatigue.

The condition is also called polyepidemic arthritis. Our friend was confined to bed for a few days until the anti-inflammatory medication started to kick in. She told me the arthritic pain was most intense in her knees, feet and ankles. The arthritis extended to her right wrist and finger joints, making it difficult to grip and lift when carrying out domestic chores like cooking

“I also felt extremely fatigued – so if I overdo it in the garden or something, I pay for it the next day.”

Her GP said there was not much she could do but ‘ride it out’ – easy to say when you are not the one home schooling three kids.

Every year, 3,000 Australians will develop RRV symptoms, which can last from six weeks to three months or longer and leaves patients with a risk of relapse or recurrence. RRV was first discovered in 1959 and named after the Ross River, which runs through Townsville. While people are more at risk of developing RRV if they live in humid regions around rivers, lakes and marshlands, the disease can be found anywhere in Australia. Some large marsupials, including kangaroos, act as an intermediary host.

Depending on weather cycles (drought followed by floods will do it), some years are worse than others. In 2014-2015, RRV cases more than doubled to 6,371.

Ross River Fever is one of a half-dozen viruses carried and spread by mosquitos, including Dengue Fever, Barmah Forest Virus and the lesser known Japanese Encephalitis.

Although RRV is not fatal or contagious, it is one of many notifiable diseases in Australia, with each State and Territory having its own parameters around notification. Included on the list is the bat-borne Lyssa virus, which can be caught by someone who is bitten or scratched by an infected bat.

There is no vaccine for RRV and unlikely to be one in the medium-term as the world’s scientists and epidemiologists are focused on finding a vaccine for COVID-19. Nor is there a vaccine for the mosquito-borne tropical disease, malaria. Mainland Australia is free of the disease; nevertheless 437 malaria cases were reported between 2012-13 and 2016-17. Cases were linked to people returning from a malaria-prone region.

Now that we are all in a state of heightened awareness about infectious diseases, we should perhaps remind ourselves of those not yet eradicated. Tuberculosis is one such illness – prevalent in third-world countries but contained in Australia to fewer than five cases in every 100,000 people. Tuberculosis or TB is primarily a disease of the lungs, although it can be systemic. It can be treated with medication, but patients need to be isolated, as it is extremely contagious.

While Australia aspires to a pre-elimination tally of one person per 100,000 by 2035, the incidence of TB is six times higher in the Indigenous Australian population. Legitimate cross border movements between PNG and the Torres Strait by traditional inhabitants unavoidably pose some risk of TB spreading in the Torres Strait Protected Zone.

Now that you are all feeling psychologically contaminated, the good news is the pre-elimination TB target (1 case per 100,000 by 2035), has already been met in the Australian-born population, who represent 72% of the total. A report by the Department of Health states that the incidence of TB has been ‘low and stable’ since 1986.

The point is, now that so much research capability is being focused on a COVD-19 vaccine (or cure), there a danger of being distracted from developing vaccines for other viruses, which, if not life-threatening, impose a serious burden on the lives of those afflicted.

The report, Mosquito- Borne Diseases in Queensland 2012-2017, may not appeal as bed-time reading in this time of heightened awareness of human frailties. So I will save you the chore and summarise a few statistics. For example, almost 14,000 people picked up RRV in the five years from 2012-13 and 2016-17. There were 3,986 reported cases of Barham Forest Virus, one of a small group of Alphaviruses including RRV and Dengue. There were 1,895 cases of Dengue fever in the same five-year period. Dengue is like a form of the flu. Most people recover in a week and fatalities are rare. In Australia, Dengue is confined to Far North Queensland, so cases diagnosed elsewhere are usually traced to a recent visit to FNQ or places where the disease is prevalent (Africa and South America). As for Japanese Encephalitis, which I referred to at the start, only three cases were recorded between 2012 and 2017.

As has been the case with COVID-19, we look to New Zealand for an intelligent response. The NZ Department of Health identified the RRV-carrying southern saltmarsh mosquito as a threat back in 1998. Over the next 11 years, with the help of the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, the imported mosquito species was eradicated from New Zealand. I feel safe in using the word ‘consequently’ to report that there have been no reported cases of Ross River Virus acquired within New Zealand since September 2006.

New Zealand scored a world first by snuffing out the little Aussie biter and RRV over a decade, possibly because there are no kangaroos to act as incubators. Having said that, did you know there are two species of wallaby in NZ (Kawau Island, Rotorua and southern Canterbury)? Anyway, I reckon Australia should send a delegation to talk to the people who eliminated the saltmarsh mozzie. Like, tell us how to do it, Bro. (If that’s the case, the kangaroos should start feeling pretty nervous. Ed)

Related reading: https://bobwords.com.au/shoo-flu-dont-bother-me/

Ten songs that influenced teenage me

ten-songs-influenced — Image (and research): Wikipedia

Most of my musician friends spend time on Facebook, so that’s why I probably saw so many of those ‘10 albums which influenced your musical tastes’ challenges. It is no surprise this diversion has become popular in the uncertain time of COVID-19 because it allowed us to yearn, just a little, for those carefree days when music helped shape our lives.

You can tell how much the ‘challenge’ means, as so many participants cannot leave it at 10. Ah, the warm feeling of remembering a relationship that budded and flowered, just as Cat Stevens released Tea for the Tillerman. Maybe you’d met a brown-eyed girl (called Rhonda); perhaps you lived in a town without pity. Or it really got you when Ray Davies wrote, ‘I’m not like everybody else’.

I walked in to the ‘challenge’ by posting an ironic observation that nobody had nominated me to do anything, My record producer friend Pix Vane-Mason popped up, asking about the music that influenced my teenage years.

It didn’t take long for me to break the rules and make my own mini-FOMM, with explanations and reviews (most just post album covers on 10 successive days, with no comment at all). A few people who saw the first entry were surprised to find I was a pre-pubescent jazz head. No 1 was Carmen McRae’s version of Dave Brubeck’s ‘Take Five’. The song version of Brubeck’s famous jazz instrumental (in 5/4 time) came out in late 1961, when I was about to turn 13. I’d not heard the original instrumental version (1958), but this set me off on an exploration of modern jazz.

In 1962, pop music began to intrude, starting with Cliff Richard’s ‘The Young Ones’ in 1961. In 1962, I quickly became impressed with Cliff’s backing band, The Shadows. Original and distinctive tunes like ‘Apache’ and ‘Flingle Bunt’ can still be heard on the radio today. Check out this 2017 version of the No 1 hit ‘Apache’ (1960) when Hank Marvin and the original members reunited for one final tour.

(There’s a prize for the first one to tell me which politician they think the drummer resembles. Ed)

In 1963, the fickle fifteen year old was torn between folk (there was a folk club in town) and the peer pressure to go with those brash young pop/rock groups from the UK. This was the year The Beatles penetrated the Kiwi consciousness.

I liked the two covers the Beatles did early on (A Taste of Honey and Till There was You) which hinted at the musicality to come. But the music I remember most from that year was a collection of trad folk songs by an extraordinary singer, Odetta. It was a hit record in NZ.

An incredibly eclectic mix of music came through the AM radio in 1964. The Beatles dominated the charts – five songs in the top 20 including numbers 1 and 2, and nine in the top 100. But they had to share Billboard’s top 10 with Louie Armstrong (Hello Dolly), Roy Orbison (Pretty Woman), the Beach Boys (I get Around) and Dean Martin (Everybody Loves Somebody). I really liked vocal harmonies so the Beach Boys almost always got my vote. But the jazz influence was still there, so even though it seems cheesy now, Stan Getz’s collaboration with Brazilian singer Astrid Gilberto, was, as Danny R said on FB, perhaps our first taste of ‘world music’.

Difficult as it was to pluck one song from the plethora of hits in 1965, I could not go past ‘Rescue Me’ by Fontella Bass. It was released a few months shy of my 17th birthday. I bought the record and played it to death. Nothing wrong with a good old fashioned teenage crush, eh! This was the year that brought us ‘King of the Road’, ‘I Can’t Help Myself’, ‘I Can’t Get No Satisfaction’, ‘Downtown’, ‘Help’ and ‘You’ve Lost That Loving Feeling’, so there was a lot of competition.

(Rescue Me)

Aretha Franklin is sometimes mistakenly credited with this song, which was written by record producers Carl Smith and Raynard Miner (Bass claimed she co-wrote the song but was never credited). The other song that grabbed me in1965 was ‘I Got You Babe’ by Sonny and Cher (Cher also recorded ‘Rescue Me’ in 1974). What was that I said about teenage crushes!

Gordon Lightfoot’s ‘Early Morning Rain’ was a hit for folk trio Peter Paul and Mary in 1965. A version by George Hamilton IV made No 9 on the country charts in 1966. This was the year Simon and Garfunkel emerged, suitcase and guitar in hand, also a beautiful song full of imagery (Elusive Butterfly of Love). But this was also the year of ‘Doobie Doobie Doo’ (say no more) and the Monkees, a manufactured band provided with catchy hits by a then-unknown Neil Diamond. For all that, folk/country music was starting to penetrate the pop charts courtesy of artists like Dylan, PP&M and Gordon Lightfoot. ‘Early Morning Rain’ covers prevailed for decades, including Elvis Presley, Bob Dylan, Jerry Lee Lewis, Eva Cassidy and Australia’s Wendy Matthews, A great song is always just that, no matter the genre.

No 9 & 10 in music that influenced me as a teenager makes a reference to J.S Bach. I was raised in a household where classical music was always in the background. Mum played the piano and organ, so naturally enough, the Bach-inspired introductions to hit songs in 1967 (the year I turned 19), pressed all of the right buttons. The late Ray Manzarek, keyboard player with The Doors candidly spoke about the inspiration for the intro to ‘Light my Fire’, Bach’s Invention No. 8, BWV 779. Many piano players who ended up in rock bands had a classical background. So when the organ intro from Procol Harem’s No 1 hit ‘Whiter shade of Pale’ first emerged from the AM radios we owned in those days, the similarity between that and Bach’s Air on the G String was immediately identified. Matthew Fisher’s Hammond organ intro eased the way for Gary Brooker’s distinctive vocals and a global hit was born. Jim Morrison’s smoky vocals on ‘Light My Fire’ emerged from Ray Manzarek’s attacking organ intro.

Later, in my 20s, the classical/jazz influence continued with a love of 70s bands like Blood Sweat and Tears, Genesis, Sky, The Nice, the Moody Blues and Emerson, Lake and Palmer.

While Joni Mitchell’s songs (Both Sides Now and the Circle Game) were hits for Judy Collins and Buffy Saint- Marie in 1967, Joni’s first album did not appear until 1968 (when I turned 20). Little did we know, 19 albums later, what an incredible influence she would be for anyone with a keen sense of music, poetry and art.

My bad – I forgot to mention ‘Friday on My Mind’ (The Easybeats, 1966), selected as one of the best songs of the last 1,000 years by Richard Thompson, Here’s RT’s version.

In the Facebook posts I also neglected to mention a key influence on my songwriting, Ray Davies of The Kinks. Those well-crafted songs (e,g, ‘Sunny Afternoon’, ‘Dead End Street’, ‘Lola’ and ‘Dedicated Follower of Fashion’), stitched sardonic social comment into a fabric of catchy and rhythmic tunes. His songs lived on in my lizard brain until I picked up a guitar aged 27 and discovered the circle of fifths, just like Ray!

Morris Dancing And Other Cancelled Events

morris-dancing-cancelled events — Image of Morris dancers at Mt Coot-tha (2019) by Mary Brettell

Most of us have one social activity we love to share with like-minded people, be it Morris dancing, concerts, plays, ballet, rodeos, stock car racing, cricket, playing or watching football (all codes) or participating in surfing carnivals or golf tournaments.

Perhaps camp drafting is your thing (nothing happening here); there are no country shows or rodeos and the list of cancelled music events and festivals goes on for pages.

Even if your interest is excentrique (a dozen friends gathering for dinner and Chateau de Chazelles while trying to speak French for two hours), COVID-19 restrictions have put paid to it.

I might just add, before developing the theme, I’m puzzled why the horse racing industry has not come under much scrutiny for its lack of attention to social distancing. Horse racing, trots and even greyhound racing have continued without disruption throughout COVID-19. Sure, there are no crowds in attendance, but just envisage a typical blanket finish in a horse race: a nose, a neck and half a head. Pity the poor jockeys at the back; copping all that flying sweat, saliva and horse drool. That’s not social distancing, folks. As animal rights group PETA rightly observes, “staff members at a typical race meeting include trainers, jockeys, vets, strappers, farriers, stewards, handlers, and stable and kennel staff. “They’re required to be in close proximity, and many travel considerable distances to attend.” (Nothing to do with gambling revenue, of course. Ed)

But as we were saying about cancelled events, Queensland’s Morris dancers called off today’s traditional May Day event.

Every year on May 1, dancers gather on hilltops at dawn to welcome the sun. Morris dancing is a 14^th century English tradition which lives on, not only in the UK, but in Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the US.

This was the topic of my first FOMM, six years ago. It was an eye-witness account of pre-dawn shenanigans atop Brisbane’s best-known spot to view the city. It was cold, dark and showery, but nothing could extinguish the enthusiasm of musicians and dancers and their loyal followers.

Morris dancers clash sticks and bump bellies, symbolising the battle between the seasons. Morris men often wear hats with flowers, and “tatter coats” and many paint their faces. Dancers use either garlands of flowers or hankies for the gentle dances. But there are as many variations in dress and dance style as there are Morris ‘sides’ or teams.

Brisbane Morris musician and dancer Nicole Murray told FOMM that local dancers would not be congregating at Mt Coot-tha this year, the first no-show for at least 40 years.

“But we are marking the occasion,” she said. “Emma (Nixon) and I recorded a version of Princess Royal (a traditional dancer tune). Everyone is dancing a jig at dawn and filming it. The aim is to do a stitched-together video. I hope that will be the outcome, anyway.”

Amongst other things, COVID-19 has postponed attempts by those who aspire to topple world records for mass participations. World records of this nature are many and varied – mass gatherings of Peruvian folk dancers, people wearing Akubra-style hats, Elvis impersonators, people dressed as Harry Potter, the longest River Dance line – the list goes on.

In 2018, the Potty Morris and Folk Festival set the record for the largest Morris dance in Sheringham (UK) with 369 dancers (33 Morris sides).

(Ed: Bob reels about clutching his head screaming ‘the bells, the bells”)

Nicole Murray’s partner John Thompson penned a song a few years ago which starts: “Dance up the sun on a fine May morning, dance up to sun to call in the Spring…” and traces the English tradition that spawned this annual event. The ritual insists that if Morris dancers don’t dance up the sun, it will never rise again.

May Day also commemorates those who struggled to win the right to fair pay and an eight-hour day. Perhaps that is one reason British Morris dancers arced up last year when the UK government arbitrarily decided to shift the date of the May long weekend (in 2020).

Meanwhile back home, a survey showed that Australians are anxious, bored and lonely as a result of the COVID-19 restrictions.

This may not apply so much to the over-65 cohort, many of whom will tell you they routinely experience anxiety, boredom and loneliness. For example, the highlight of my week was queuing up at 7.15am for my annual flu shot, along with 150 others over-65s. (We stayed at least three walkers apart).

Freedom of movement restrictions are sending some people a bit bonkers. Look how much trouble these rugby league players are in, not only breaking curfew but sharing their co-mingling activities on social media.

Young people are finding self-isolation and social restrictions tough. I offer as evidence the chart that shows more women aged 20-29 have been infected with COVID-19 than any other age group.

We have noticed, on our evening strolls along the river with the dog, increasing numbers of runners, seemingly out for more than routine exercise. Most people whizz by at one or two metres with a cheery “G’day”. Some give us a wide berth, occasionally muttering “1.5 metres mate.” A solitary young man can be seen repeatedly whacking a hockey ball into the net, not missing very often. One can only guess, in these uncertain times, at the level of frustration felt by people who enjoy team sports of any kind.

Even though I have been a rugby league fan for some 40 years, I disagree with the National Rugby League’s decision to restart the professional season in late May. It is irresponsible, fraught with risk and seems to be done for the sake of TV rights, betting agencies, and advertising contracts (not forgetting contractual obligations with players and coaches).

As is often demonstrated, the NRL cannot control what goes on in the lives of young athletes with high disposable incomes. What’s worse is the sense of entitlement the season re-launch implies. It may not be so well known that all amateur and semi-professional footballers (and netball players), were stood down in March. There are no signs at all of those competitions resuming any time soon.

We all may deeply resent the forced curtailment of our chosen sport/hobby/social activity. But it is being done for noble reasons, demonstrated every day with a notable drop-off in new COVID-19 cases. This weekend will be the first big test (in Queensland), as some restrictions are eased. For our part, we may visit Queen Mary Falls, located in a national park some 40 kms from home, just inside the 50km maximum travel allowance. As it’s in a national park, the dog will have to say home. He won’t like it, but rules are rules, eh?

As for the Morris no-show, several people who follow the tradition suggested Morris folk dance in their own driveways, just like on Anzac Day. Accordion and bells at 5am, LOL!

Here’s Nicole’s Murray’s song, Let Winter Begin, about that very magical moment from a southern hemisphere perspective.Let Winter Begin